Hi, guys...
Haven't posted in awhile...trying to flush out the bad taste of a poor summer in baseball. I hope my aptitude for movie/TV props and the fights next week can help clean up the mess.
Not sure why more people don't jump on awards props: we're not trying to predict a futures outcome, but simply estimate the opinions of people who have ALREADY made their decision.
Here's what I'm lookng at tonight...while I have strong opinions for Best Series, I only put money down on the performance categories. All odds are taken from OLY, IMO, the only place to go for props considering their $500 limits for the big shows.
Best Dramatic Series
The Sopranos (+175)
It wasn't an exceptional year for this show or archrival "West Wing," which has won the past three years in a row. But the HBO series has yet to win the Big One, and after a sensational closer and having been on hiatus last year, this wil probably be it. (Did not play.)
Best Dramatic Actor
Martin Sheen (+600)
The first of many value plays tonight. While many people are counting on Gandolfini to take home a third statue, that's probably the reason why he won't win: that and co-star Edie Falco basically upstages him in the submitted episode "Whitecaps." (Remember, acting nominees can only submit one installment for review. This is not for a season's worth of work.)
Sheen has never won and "Wing" appears to be sliding. Before they're out of the running entirely next year, it's very possible the association will choose to reward him now. Pundits think this is a two-horse race: with one horse getting 6-1 odds, how the hell can you pass this up? (And Sheen was +1000 a few days ago, so someone agrees with me.)
$500 to win $3,000
Hedge: Gandolfini - $290 to win $730
Best Dramatic Actress
Pass
Congrats to whomever got shoe-in Edie Falco at -167. "Whitecaps" was a stunning hour of television.
I was tempted to play Allison Janney: she's never lost a nom and even took one home last year despite only having 10 minutes of screen time. I could've sworn she was higher than +800 a few days ago. Whatever you do, don't lay -500 on Falco. She's probable, but nothing is set in stone.
Best Comedy Series
Everybody loves Raymond (+200)
Nice value here...Raymond is about ready to hang it up and they had a solid season. "Curb" has a huge chance, too, but voters don't always like seeing themselves portrayed as smarmy assholes. (Did not play.)
Best Comedic Actor
Matt LeBlanc (+1500)
Tons of value here! Romano won last year; Larry David is good, but it's hardly a stretch to play yourself; Bernie Mac should be honored to get the nomination; McCormack doesn't stand out.
"Friends" is entering a home stretch and they gave it to Aniston last year. LeBlanc is underrated but I think voters are catching on to the fact that you gotta be smart to play dumb.
$200 to win $3,000
Best Comedic Actress
Debra Messing (+800)
More value: Messing has never won and most pundits agree that this race is wide open. Parker has her share; Heaton and Kazmerek are shrill; Aniston got the nod last year. Voters may want to recognize Messing when there's no clear-cut favorite to walk over.
$500 to win $4,000
I only need one dog to park to have a very nice evening - worst case, Gandolfini should pull it out and I'll only be down $500 if I strike out completely.
Good luck to all! I'll try and post UFC thoughts before fight night.
Haven't posted in awhile...trying to flush out the bad taste of a poor summer in baseball. I hope my aptitude for movie/TV props and the fights next week can help clean up the mess.
Not sure why more people don't jump on awards props: we're not trying to predict a futures outcome, but simply estimate the opinions of people who have ALREADY made their decision.
Here's what I'm lookng at tonight...while I have strong opinions for Best Series, I only put money down on the performance categories. All odds are taken from OLY, IMO, the only place to go for props considering their $500 limits for the big shows.
Best Dramatic Series
The Sopranos (+175)
It wasn't an exceptional year for this show or archrival "West Wing," which has won the past three years in a row. But the HBO series has yet to win the Big One, and after a sensational closer and having been on hiatus last year, this wil probably be it. (Did not play.)
Best Dramatic Actor
Martin Sheen (+600)
The first of many value plays tonight. While many people are counting on Gandolfini to take home a third statue, that's probably the reason why he won't win: that and co-star Edie Falco basically upstages him in the submitted episode "Whitecaps." (Remember, acting nominees can only submit one installment for review. This is not for a season's worth of work.)
Sheen has never won and "Wing" appears to be sliding. Before they're out of the running entirely next year, it's very possible the association will choose to reward him now. Pundits think this is a two-horse race: with one horse getting 6-1 odds, how the hell can you pass this up? (And Sheen was +1000 a few days ago, so someone agrees with me.)
$500 to win $3,000
Hedge: Gandolfini - $290 to win $730
Best Dramatic Actress
Pass
Congrats to whomever got shoe-in Edie Falco at -167. "Whitecaps" was a stunning hour of television.
I was tempted to play Allison Janney: she's never lost a nom and even took one home last year despite only having 10 minutes of screen time. I could've sworn she was higher than +800 a few days ago. Whatever you do, don't lay -500 on Falco. She's probable, but nothing is set in stone.
Best Comedy Series
Everybody loves Raymond (+200)
Nice value here...Raymond is about ready to hang it up and they had a solid season. "Curb" has a huge chance, too, but voters don't always like seeing themselves portrayed as smarmy assholes. (Did not play.)
Best Comedic Actor
Matt LeBlanc (+1500)
Tons of value here! Romano won last year; Larry David is good, but it's hardly a stretch to play yourself; Bernie Mac should be honored to get the nomination; McCormack doesn't stand out.
"Friends" is entering a home stretch and they gave it to Aniston last year. LeBlanc is underrated but I think voters are catching on to the fact that you gotta be smart to play dumb.
$200 to win $3,000
Best Comedic Actress
Debra Messing (+800)
More value: Messing has never won and most pundits agree that this race is wide open. Parker has her share; Heaton and Kazmerek are shrill; Aniston got the nod last year. Voters may want to recognize Messing when there's no clear-cut favorite to walk over.
$500 to win $4,000
I only need one dog to park to have a very nice evening - worst case, Gandolfini should pull it out and I'll only be down $500 if I strike out completely.
Good luck to all! I'll try and post UFC thoughts before fight night.
